forecast.commodity_outlook
Climate-driven price pressure outlook for a commodity. Returns BULLISH/BEARISH/NEUTRAL signal with 30/60/90-day horizons, confidence score, per-region stressor breakdown, and current FRED price reference. Covers 11 commodities: WHEAT, CORN, SOYB, COFFEE, COCOA, COTTON, SUGAR, WTI, NG, COPPER, LUMBER. Designed for institutional research teams evaluating commodity positions. Signals reflect supply constraint risk from climate — not a financial recommendation. Cache: 4h.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| fresh | No | true = bypass 4h cache and recompute live signals | |
| symbol | Yes | Commodity symbol |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| name | No | ||
| signal | No | ||
| symbol | No | ||
| regions | No | Per production-region climate scores and drought/temperature readings | |
| horizons | No | 30d / 60d / 90d — each has signal, confidence, basis | |
| reasoning | No | Plain-language synthesis of climate signals and price implications | |
| stressors | No | Active climate stressors with severity, region, price impact estimate, probability | |
| confidence | No | Signal confidence 0–1 | |
| climateScore | No | Supply constraint pressure 0–100; >65 = elevated bullish pressure | |
| currentPrice | No | Latest FRED price reference (value, unit, date) | |
| forecastedAt | No | ||
| recommendation | No | ||
| inGrowingSeason | No | true = stressors in peak transmission window — act faster |