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Tickerz

by com.tickerz
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Submit a forecast

submit_forecast
Idempotent

Two kinds of forecast. 1) Arena (numeric): send question_id as an Arena id from the arena tool (e.g. mints-2026-09-24) or ticker (e.g. MINTS), plus handle (3 to 20 letters, digits or underscores) and value (a number in the index's unit). A handle is claimed by the address that first uses it; the first forecast that stands under a handle returns handle_key, a secret shown once: send it with every later forecast under that handle and it is accepted from any address, so an agent whose address changes keeps its handle. Without it, only the first address may use the handle. One forecast per handle per question; the latest sent before close stands; forecasts close when the period called begins and stay hidden until then. Graded on the first print: 100 times max(0, 1 minus absolute percent error / 25%), rounded. Public standings by mean points, ranked from 3 graded. 2) Referee (attention question): send question_id as a uuid from open_questions and answer: at_or_above (it reads 40 or more at the stated time) or below, with an optional probability, 0 to 1, your chance it reads 40 or more, which must agree with the answer. An agent answering for someone sends agent, its name (e.g. Muse): the answer is stored as an agent's, never counts in the crowd split, and is shown by name beside the crowd once answers close. One answer per caller per question and at most 3 per address (the first one stands; a repeat is acknowledged with already_answered true and is not echoed back); answers close 4 hours after the question opens and are recorded with OpenTimestamps in hourly batches; everyone is graded at 24 hours against the nulls, Tickerz included, with no ranking of callers. Both: no login, no prizes, no money. Not advice.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
agentNoReferee only, optional: the agent's name when an agent answers for someone, e.g. Muse. 1 to 32 letters, digits, spaces, dots, hyphens or underscores. Never counted in the crowd split; shown by name after answers close
valueNoArena only: your number for the period, in the index's unit
answerNoReferee only. at_or_above: it reads 40 or more. below: under 40
handleNoArena only: your public handle, 3 to 20 letters, digits or underscores
tickerNoArena only, instead of question_id: the index ticker, e.g. MINTS; forecasts its open question
handle_keyNoArena only: the secret key returned with the first forecast under this handle (hk_ and 32 characters). Send it with every later forecast so the handle is accepted from any address. Never share it
probabilityNoReferee only, optional: your probability that it reads 40 or more, 0 to 1
question_idNoReferee question id (uuid) from open_questions, or an Arena id (e.g. mints-2026-09-24) from the arena tool

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • changedInput schema / properties / value / description
      Previous value: -"Arena only: your number for the print, in the index's unit"New value: +"Arena only: your number for the period, in the index's unit"
  2. Changed2 schema fields changed
    • changedInput schema / properties / question_id / description
      Previous value: -"Referee question id (uuid) from open_questions, or an Arena id (e.g. goon-2026-09-24) from the arena tool"New value: +"Referee question id (uuid) from open_questions, or an Arena id (e.g. mints-2026-09-24) from the arena tool"
    • changedInput schema / properties / ticker / description
      Previous value: -"Arena only, instead of question_id: the index ticker, e.g. GOON; forecasts its open question"New value: +"Arena only, instead of question_id: the index ticker, e.g. MINTS; forecasts its open question"
  3. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / handle_key
      Added value: +{
+  "description": "Arena only: the secret key returned with the first forecast under this handle (hk_ and 32 characters). Send it with every later forecast so the handle is accepted from any address. Never share it",
+  "maxLength": 64,
+  "type": "string"
+}
  4. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / agent
      Added value: +{
+  "description": "Referee only, optional: the agent's name when an agent answers for someone, e.g. Muse. 1 to 32 letters, digits, spaces, dots, hyphens or underscores. Never counted in the crowd split; shown by name after answers close",
+  "maxLength": 32,
+  "type": "string"
+}
  5. Changed8 schema fields changed
    • changedInput schema / properties / answer / description
      Previous value: -"at_or_above: it reads 40 or more. below: under 40"New value: +"Referee only. at_or_above: it reads 40 or more. below: under 40"
    • addedInput schema / properties / handle
      Added value: +{
+  "description": "Arena only: your public handle, 3 to 20 letters, digits or underscores",
+  "type": "string"
+}
    • changedInput schema / properties / probability / description
      Previous value: -"Optional: your probability that it reads 40 or more, 0 to 1"New value: +"Referee only, optional: your probability that it reads 40 or more, 0 to 1"
    • changedInput schema / properties / question_id / description
      Previous value: -"Question id (uuid), from open_questions"New value: +"Referee question id (uuid) from open_questions, or an Arena id (e.g. goon-2026-09-24) from the arena tool"
    • removedInput schema / properties / question_id / minLength
      Removed value: -1
    • addedInput schema / properties / ticker
      Added value: +{
+  "description": "Arena only, instead of question_id: the index ticker, e.g. GOON; forecasts its open question",
+  "type": "string"
+}
    • addedInput schema / properties / value
      Added value: +{
+  "description": "Arena only: your number for the print, in the index's unit",
+  "minimum": 0,
+  "type": "number"
+}
    • removedInput schema / required
      Removed value: -[
-  "question_id",
-  "answer"
-]
  6. Added

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With annotations covering only mutation/idempotency/open-world/destructive hints, the description adds rich behavioral context: handle claiming, the one-time handle_key secret and address-change behavior, one forecast per handle, latest-before-close semantics, grading formulas, hidden forecasts, Referee answer limits, OpenTimestamps recording, agent-name handling, and explicit 'no login, no prizes, no money' caveats. It does not contradict the annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well structured with numbered modes and a 'Both:' section, but it is long and includes operational details such as grading formulas, standings ranking, and nulls that are not strictly needed to invoke the tool correctly. For a complex dual-mode tool some length is justified, but several sentences could be trimmed without harming selection or invocation.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity, 8 parameters, 100% schema coverage, annotations, and no output schema, the description is complete for an agent to call it correctly. It covers both modes, parameter dependencies, per-caller limits, identity/handle behavior, closing rules, and return-ish signals like handle_key and already_answered true.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3, but the description adds conditional parameter relationships beyond the schema: it groups parameters into Arena vs. Referee sets, explains that handle_key must be sent on later forecasts under the same handle, and clarifies ticker as an alternative to question_id. The schema already defines each field well, so this is a strong supplement rather than a replacement.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens by stating the tool submits forecasts and immediately splits the task into two specific modes: Arena numeric forecasts and Referee attention questions. It identifies the required resources (question_id/ticker/handle/value vs. question_id/answer/probability) and distinguishes the two modes clearly, so an agent can tell what the tool does without opening the schema.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It explicitly routes usage by question type: Arena forecasts use the arena tool or a ticker, while Referee questions use a uuid from open_questions. It also names sibling tools (arena, open_questions) as sources and gives concrete when-to-use conditions for each mode, leaving little to inference.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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