Synthex Forge — x402 Paid Agent Services

Assess Risk Of Ruin

assess_risk_of_ruin

Read-onlyIdempotent

Return ONE signed, dated risk-of-ruin answer. use it rather than assess_portfolio_risk for risk of ruin, not portfolio risk; an object with 50 fields including E0, N. $0.05 USDC.

Input Schema

Name	Required	Description
`seed`	No	The random seed, so a stochastic answer can be reproduced exactly.
`as_of`	No	The date the answer is computed as of (YYYY-MM-DD). Defaults to today. Use it to reproduce a past answer exactly.
`trades`	No	The trades this operation operates on. See the schema for its type and whether it is required.
`capital`	No	The capital this operation operates on. See the schema for its type and whether it is required.
`win_rate`	No	The win rate this operation operates on. See the schema for its type and whether it is required.
`avg_win_r`	No	The avg win r this operation operates on. See the schema for its type and whether it is required.
`avg_loss_r`	No	The avg loss r this operation operates on. See the schema for its type and whether it is required.
`risk_per_trade_pct`	No	The risk per trade pct this operation operates on. See the schema for its type and whether it is required.

Output Schema

Name	Required	Description
`N`	No	The `N` field of the response.
`E0`	No	The `E0` field of the response.
`mu`	No	The `mu` field of the response.
`form`	No	The `form` field of the response.
`note`	No	A note on how the answer was produced.
`runs`	No	The `runs` field of the response.
`as_of`	No	The date the answer is computed as of.
`kelly`	No	The `kelly` field of the response.
`route`	No	The `route` field of the response.
`detail`	Yes	Human-readable explanation of the verdict.
`key_id`	No	The `key_id` field of the response.
`seeded`	No	The `seeded` field of the response.
`sigma2`	No	The `sigma2` field of the response.
`trades`	No	The `trades` field of the response.
`capital`	No	The `capital` field of the response.
`process`	No	The `process` field of the response.
`reasons`	No	The `reasons` field of the response.
`verdict`	Yes	The decision this tool returned.
`cautious`	No	The `cautious` field of the response.
`readOnly`	No	The `readOnly` field of the response.
`verdicts`	No	The `verdicts` field of the response.
`excessive`	No	The `excessive` field of the response.
`halfKelly`	No	The `halfKelly` field of the response.
`ruinModel`	No	The `ruinModel` field of the response.
`signature`	Yes	The Ed25519 signature over the evidence core, base64-encoded.
`signed_by`	No	The key id that signed the answer.
`tolerance`	No	The `tolerance` field of the response.
`half_kelly`	No	The `half_kelly` field of the response.
`provenance`	No	The `provenance` field of the response.
`public_key`	No	The `public_key` field of the response.
`simulation`	No	The `simulation` field of the response.
`thresholds`	No	The `thresholds` field of the response.
`assumptions`	No	The `assumptions` field of the response.
`absorbingRuin`	No	The `absorbingRuin` field of the response.
`coverage_gaps`	No	The `coverage_gaps` field of the response.
`evidence_core`	Yes	The canonical, signed core of the answer — the payload the signature covers.
`output_sha256`	Yes	SHA-256 hex digest of the canonical evidence core.
`kelly_fraction`	No	The `kelly_fraction` field of the response.
`verdict_agrees`	No	The `verdict_agrees` field of the response.
`simulation_runs`	No	The `simulation_runs` field of the response.
`simulation_seed`	No	The `simulation_seed` field of the response.
`canonicalization`	No	The canonicalisation rule the digest was computed under.
`ruin_probability`	No	The `ruin_probability` field of the response.
`risk_per_trade_pct`	No	The `risk_per_trade_pct` field of the response.
`signature_algorithm`	No	The `signature_algorithm` field of the response.
`analytic_simulated_gap`	No	The `analytic_simulated_gap` field of the response.
`expectedGrowthPerTrade`	No	The `expectedGrowthPerTrade` field of the response.
`median_terminal_wealth`	No	The `median_terminal_wealth` field of the response.
`expected_growth_per_trade`	No	The `expected_growth_per_trade` field of the response.
`simulated_ruin_probability`	No	The `simulated_ruin_probability` field of the response.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

Changed52 schema fields changedOct 31, 2026

addedOutput schema / properties / E0

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `E0` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / N

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `N` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / absorbingRuin

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `absorbingRuin` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / analytic_simulated_gap

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `analytic_simulated_gap` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / as_of

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The date the answer is computed as of.",
+  "type": "string"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / assumptions

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `assumptions` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / canonicalization

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The canonicalisation rule the digest was computed under.",
+  "type": "string"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / capital

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `capital` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / cautious

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `cautious` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / coverage_gaps

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `coverage_gaps` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / detail

Added value: +{
+  "description": "Human-readable explanation of the verdict.",
+  "type": "string"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / evidence_core

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The canonical, signed core of the answer — the payload the signature covers.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / excessive

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `excessive` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / expectedGrowthPerTrade

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `expectedGrowthPerTrade` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / expected_growth_per_trade

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `expected_growth_per_trade` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / form

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `form` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / halfKelly

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `halfKelly` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / half_kelly

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `half_kelly` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / kelly

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `kelly` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / kelly_fraction

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `kelly_fraction` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / key_id

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `key_id` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / median_terminal_wealth

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `median_terminal_wealth` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / mu

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `mu` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / note

Added value: +{
+  "description": "A note on how the answer was produced.",
+  "type": "string"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / output_sha256

Added value: +{
+  "description": "SHA-256 hex digest of the canonical evidence core.",
+  "type": "string"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / process

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `process` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / provenance

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `provenance` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / public_key

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `public_key` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / readOnly

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `readOnly` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / reasons

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `reasons` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / risk_per_trade_pct

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `risk_per_trade_pct` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / route

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `route` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / ruinModel

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `ruinModel` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / ruin_probability

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `ruin_probability` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / runs

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `runs` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / seeded

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `seeded` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / sigma2

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `sigma2` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / signature

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The Ed25519 signature over the evidence core, base64-encoded.",
+  "type": "string"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / signature_algorithm

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `signature_algorithm` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / signed_by

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The key id that signed the answer.",
+  "type": "string"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / simulated_ruin_probability

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `simulated_ruin_probability` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / simulation

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `simulation` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / simulation_runs

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `simulation_runs` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / simulation_seed

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `simulation_seed` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

removedOutput schema / properties / status

Removed value: -{
-  "type": "string"
-}

addedOutput schema / properties / thresholds

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `thresholds` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / tolerance

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `tolerance` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / trades

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `trades` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / verdict

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The decision this tool returned.",
+  "type": "string"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / verdict_agrees

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `verdict_agrees` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / verdicts

Added value: +{
+  "description": "The `verdicts` field of the response.",
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / required

Added value: +[
+  "detail",
+  "evidence_core",
+  "output_sha256",
+  "signature",
+  "verdict"
+]

AddedOct 31, 2026

TDQS

A4/5.0

Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, idempotentHint, and non-destructive behavior, so the safety profile is covered. The description adds genuinely new behavioral context: the answer is signed and dated, it costs $0.05 USDC (material for budget-aware agents), and the payload is a large object of ~50 fields. It loses a point because 'E0, N' is unexplained jargon an agent cannot act on.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Two short sentences with the purpose front-loaded, so it is appropriately sized. Structure is loose, though: the alternative comparison, the field-count note, and the price are stitched together with semicolons and a stray '$0.05 USDC' fragment, and 'risk of ruin' is repeated redundantly.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness3/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With an output schema present, the description needn't enumerate return values, and the cost plus signed/dated note covers the commercial and integrity side. But with 8 parameters and 0 required, the description never says what happens when trades/capital/win_rate and friends are omitted, and the cited E0/N fields are uninterpretable.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the nominal baseline is 3. The description contributes no parameter guidance at all, and the schema's own parameter text is generic boilerplate ('The trades this operation operates on...'), so the description had room to compensate and did not. It does not clarify what happens when the nullable inputs are omitted.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states a concrete verb and resource ('Return ONE signed, dated risk-of-ruin answer') and immediately distinguishes the output from the sibling tool's output ('risk of ruin, not portfolio risk'). An agent can tell this apart from assess_portfolio_risk without opening either schema.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It names an explicit alternative and the condition that selects it: use this rather than `assess_portfolio_risk` when the question is risk of ruin. That is strong routing guidance. It stops short of covering the many other assess_* siblings or stating when this tool should not be used at all, so a 4 rather than 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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