Weather Markets Edge Desk

Calculate EV Edge

calculate_ev

Read-only

Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read. Free, no key. Every PMP engine signal is graded in public: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema

Name	Required	Description	Default
`marketPrice`	Yes	Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
`yourProbability`	Yes	Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema

Name	Required	Description
`signal`	No	BUY / SELL / SKIP.
`edge_pp`	No	Your probability minus the price, pp.
`sources`	No
`edge_pct`	No	Expected-value edge, %.
`tell_user`	No	Show this sentence to the user first.
`timestamp`	No
`needs_input`	No
`example_call`	No
`data_freshness`	No
`interpretation`	No	Plain-English read.
`market_price_cents`	No	Price used, cents.
`your_probability_pct`	No	Probability used, %.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

Changed1 schema field changedSep 29, 2026

changedOutput schema / (root)

Previous value: -nullNew value: +{
+  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
+  "additionalProperties": {},
+  "properties": {
+    "data_freshness": {},
+    "edge_pct": {
+      "description": "Expected-value edge, %."
+    },
+    "edge_pp": {
+      "description": "Your probability minus the price, pp."
+    },
+    "example_call": {},
+    "interpretation": {
+      "description": "Plain-English read."
+    },
+    "market_price_cents": {
+      "description": "Price used, cents."
+    },
+    "needs_input": {},
+    "signal": {
+      "description": "BUY / SELL / SKIP."
+    },
+    "sources": {},
+    "tell_user": {
+      "description": "Show this sentence to the user first.",
+      "type": "string"
+    },
+    "timestamp": {
+      "type": "string"
+    },
+    "your_probability_pct": {
+      "description": "Probability used, %."
+    }
+  },
+  "type": "object"
+}

First observedSep 10, 2026

TDQS

A3.6/5.0

Behavior3/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true and openWorldHint=false, and the description usefully adds cost/auth context ("Free, no key") plus the decision shape (BUY/SELL/SKIP). It does not go beyond that into rate limits, staleness, or interpretation caveats, so it is adequate rather than rich.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The core is front-loaded and tight, but the closing track-record promotion ("Every PMP engine signal is graded in public: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record") is marketing that does not help an agent select or invoke the tool, diluting an otherwise two-sentence definition.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With an output schema covering the return values, annotations covering safety, and full parameter documentation in the schema, the description supplies everything else an agent needs: when to reach for it and what decision it yields. Only the sibling-routing and edge-case guidance are absent.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100% and both parameters document accepted input formats (cents, percent, dollars, American odds) in detail. The description only restates 'price in cents' and 'your own probability', adding no format or edge-case semantics beyond the schema, so the baseline 3 applies.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states a specific verb (calculate expected-value edge) and resource (contract price vs. your probability), and anchors it with concrete user questions ("is this contract mispriced", "what is my edge"). It only implicitly distinguishes itself from siblings like kelly_size or edge_alerts rather than naming them, so it falls short of a 5.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It gives a clear trigger context (you have a market price and your own probability estimate) and states the decision output expected. No explicit when-not or named alternatives, so not a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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