calibrate_decision
Calibrate a prediction's confidence against historical outcomes. Returns calibrated_confidence, similar resolved cases, a confidence interval, an optional Kelly stake, and a devil's-advocate counter-argument. Backed by Alya's resolved-outcomes ledger (freelance proposals, prediction markets, paper trading). Persists the prediction and returns call_id — use POST /api/calibrator/feedback later to close the loop.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| domain | No | Optional domain tag, e.g. 'freelance.proposal.upwork.python', 'prediction-market.politics', 'equities.paper.spy'. Used to filter similar cases. | |
| stakes | No | Optional USD amount at stake; used to compute kelly_stake. | |
| confidence | No | Your initial confidence 0..1. | |
| prediction | Yes | What you predict will happen (1 sentence). |