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JYOTINT Sealed Forecasts

get_information_yield

Read-onlyIdempotent

Information Yield (IY) — how much a confirmed call should move a skeptic's belief, in BITS of surprise-if-true (log2 of the published 1-in-N prior, capped at 1-in-a-million; earned = surprise × verdict-credit). A base rate / consensus-follower scores ZERO bits by construction — the metric on which the 'a base rate ties the Brier' objection inverts. Returns the corpus summary (LIVE median bits/call + %earned — read the numbers from the response, never from this description), the launch/intel/combined domain split, and the count. Pass an optional id for one call's bits.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
idNoOptional advisory id (e.g. 'LA-022') for one call's IY.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already cover the safety profile (readOnly, idempotent, non-destructive), so the bar is lower; the description still adds real context by enumerating the return payload and warning the agent to read numbers from the response rather than the description. It discloses no rate limits or freshness caveats beyond that, so not a 5.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The purpose is front-loaded, but a large share of the text is conceptual/marketing framing ('how much a confirmed call should move a skeptic's belief', 'the metric on which the base rate ties the Brier objection inverts') rather than task guidance. The parenthetical formula and polemic are dense and only partially earn their place.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

There is no output schema, so the description must describe the return value — and it does, naming the summary components, the domain split, and the count. Combined with the optional-id behavior, an agent has enough to call and interpret the tool, though the interpretation of each number is left implicit.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% and the single id parameter is already documented, so the baseline is 3. The description adds the meaningful behavioral detail that supplying the id switches output to that one call's bits, which is slightly better than nothing, but it offers no format constraints beyond the schema's own example.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states a specific resource and what it returns: a corpus summary (median bits/call, %earned), a launch/intel/combined domain split, and a count, plus a per-call mode when an id is passed. It's a clear metric tool. It does not, however, distinguish itself from metric-adjacent siblings like get_calibration_and_integrity or get_luck_test, so it stops short of a 5.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines3/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It implies the two usage modes ('Pass an optional id for one call's bits' vs. the default corpus summary), so an agent can infer how to invoke it. But there is no explicit when-to-use/when-not guidance and no routing to alternative siblings for related metric questions, leaving the selection decision to inference.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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