What it would take to lose that much
reverse_stressStarts from a loss the reader names and finds the least extreme combination of market moves that would produce it on this portfolio, beside the worst each of those moves actually did in the record. Use it for 'what would it take to lose that much?'; for what past crises actually did use past_crises. loss is a fraction (0.25 is a quarter); base sets the currency (default USD). No probability is computed: the answer says how large the moves would be, not how likely.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| base | No | Currency every figure is expressed in (USD, EUR, GBP, CAD…). Default USD. | |
| loss | No | The loss to explain, as a fraction: 0.25 = lose a quarter. | |
| holdings | Yes | What is held: {ticker: weight or amount}. Weights need not sum to one; amounts in the base currency are also accepted (then the crises are shown in money). 1 to 100 holdings. Tickers as the exchange lists them (VOO, VWCE.DE, XAW.TO; 'CASH.USD' for cash). |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| data | No | Where the prices came from and what was missing or repaired. | |
| line | No | One sentence: what it would take. | |
| moves | No | Per market direction: label, plain wording, shock needed, sensitivity (beta), share of the loss, worst_seen in the record over the same number of days. | |
| _fence | Yes | What these figures are and are not: descriptive, no forecast, no advice. Repeat its sense when presenting the result. | |
| target | No | The loss explained, as a negative fraction. | |
| coverage | No | Share of the portfolio's movement these directions explain. | |
| window_end | No | Record end. | |
| window_days | No | Length of the move considered, in trading days. | |
| window_start | No | Record start. |