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Positioning Analysis

research_positioning
Read-only

Deterministic positioning read for one coin — the game-state companion to research_regime, answering 'who is crowded, who is paying, who is trapped, and where'. Up to nine axes, each tagged with the market-actor cohort it reads: crowding (annualized funding vs the venue-standard 0.01%/8h anchor, long/short skew, dollars/day the majority pays to hold, crowd-vs-top-trader divergence, and cross-venue funding dispersion), buildup (24h price vs open-interest direction and the funding trend — whether positions are being added into the move or closed out), liquidity (order-book spread and imbalance — makers backing off), basis (perp vs oracle premium — spot-perp froth or hedging pressure, informational), fragility (24h liquidations as a share of market-wide open interest; the axis degrades rather than substituting a single venue's OI, since the liquidation total is cross-exchange), predation (visible Hyperliquid whale positions within 2 daily sigmas of their liquidation price, with defending book depth), trap (share of tracked whale notional underwater on the funding-paying side — attrition fuel), house book (Hyperliquid HLP LP-vault inventory, summed across its child sub-vaults — the literal venue counterparty, so the inventory it carries mirrors how traders are crowded; measured as net over its own gross book, since a market maker's net is a rounding error against venue open interest; informational), and disagreement (the most liquid matching prediction market, volume-gated, informational). Each axis reports its state, the numbers, and a +1/0/-1 fragility vote (+1 clean, -1 crowded/fragile); the stance is the disclosed sum-of-votes rule. Also returns a one-line 'farmed' synthesis (which cohort the board is currently farming, or an explicit statement that none is), focal points — reachable liquidation and breakeven price levels the whole market can see — and 'would change the call' thresholds a polling agent can watch statelessly. Reports the board, not a direction: crowding says who is paying, not where price goes. Deterministic — same inputs, same read. Call research_regime first for market context, then this per coin before sizing or timing decisions.

Input Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
symbolYesCoin symbol, e.g. "BTC" or "ETH".

Output Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
axesNo
farmedNoOne-line synthesis of which cohort the board is currently farming. Always populated: when no cohort clears the trap/crowding/predation bars it says so explicitly and names who is paying the carry.
stanceNoOverall positioning-fragility label
symbolNo
optionsNoInformational option-holder cohort read from Deribit (OI notional, put/call OI, 25-delta skew, next expiry and theoretical max pain) and the modeled gamma state (under gamma). Never votes; present when the coin has listed options.
axesTotalNo
stanceRuleNoThe exact rule that produced stance
thresholdsNoThe wouldChange lines in machine-readable form for stateless alerting
focalPointsNoPrice levels that are common knowledge on the board, nearest to spot first
skippedAxesNoAxes attempted but not computed; the stance is over the computed ones only
wouldChangeNoThresholds that would flip an axis, as prose
axesComputedNo
exchangeNoticesNoScheduled and recent (within 7 days) exchange listings and delistings for the coins in this answer; see catalysts_exchange_listings. Shown, never scored.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedOutput schema / properties / exchangeNotices
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Scheduled and recent (within 7 days) exchange listings and delistings for the coins in this answer; see catalysts_exchange_listings. Shown, never scored.",
      +  "type": "array"
      +}
  2. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedOutput schema / properties / options
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Informational option-holder cohort read from Deribit (OI notional, put/call OI, 25-delta skew, next expiry and theoretical max pain) and the modeled gamma state (under gamma). Never votes; present when the coin has listed options.",
      +  "type": "object"
      +}
  3. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedOutput schema / properties / skippedAxes
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Axes attempted but not computed; the stance is over the computed ones only",
      +  "items": {
      +    "properties": {
      +      "name": {
      +        "type": "string"
      +      },
      +      "reason": {
      +        "description": "The feed that was offline, or what the coin lacks",
      +        "type": "string"
      +      }
      +    },
      +    "type": "object"
      +  },
      +  "type": "array"
      +}
  4. First observed

TDQS

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