Criora: climate & disaster risk for any place

El Niño and La Niña: NOAA's outlook and what they bring a country

get_enso_outlook

Read-onlyIdempotent

El Niño and La Niña now and ahead: NOAA CPC's alert status and its chances of each phase for the nine seasons ahead. With a country, what each phase has brought it in each season since 1950 (its wetter or drier, warmer or colder third): tendencies of the past, not a forecast.

Use for "is El Niño coming", "will El Niño make Indonesia dry this winter".

Tool call template

This tool declares no required parameters. Add optional parameters from the input schema as needed.

{
  "id": 1,
  "jsonrpc": "2.0",
  "method": "tools/call",
  "params": {
    "arguments": {},
    "name": "get_enso_outlook"
  }
}

Input Schema

Name	Required	Description	Default
`country`	No	ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 code (e.g. IDN) or country name; leave out for the outlook
`response_format`	No	concise (default) answers the question; detailed adds every field the sources give	concise

Output Schema

Name	Required	Description	Default
`note`	No
`ahead`	No
`credit`	Yes
`issued`	Yes
`chances`	No
`country`	No
`records`	No
`seasons`	No
`statuses`	Yes
`synopsis`	Yes
`past_el_ninos`	No
`next_discussion`	Yes

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

Changed60 schema fields changedNov 5, 2026

removedOutput schema / $defs / Credit / additionalProperties
```
Removed value: -true
```

removedOutput schema / $defs / Credit / properties / attribution / anyOf

Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "type": "string"
-  },
-  {
-    "type": "null"
-  }
-]

removedOutput schema / $defs / Credit / properties / attribution / default
```
Removed value: -null
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / Credit / properties / attribution / description
```
Removed value: -"The credit the licence asks for when it is retold"
```
addedOutput schema / $defs / Credit / properties / attribution / type
```
Added value: +[
+  "string",
+  "null"
+]
```

removedOutput schema / $defs / Credit / properties / licence / anyOf

Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "type": "string"
-  },
-  {
-    "type": "null"
-  }
-]

removedOutput schema / $defs / Credit / properties / licence / default
```
Removed value: -null
```
addedOutput schema / $defs / Credit / properties / licence / type
```
Added value: +[
+  "string",
+  "null"
+]
```

removedOutput schema / $defs / Credit / properties / name / anyOf

Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "type": "string"
-  },
-  {
-    "type": "null"
-  }
-]

removedOutput schema / $defs / Credit / properties / name / default
```
Removed value: -null
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / Credit / properties / name / description
```
Removed value: -"The feed's name as it is cited"
```
addedOutput schema / $defs / Credit / properties / name / type
```
Added value: +[
+  "string",
+  "null"
+]
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoChances / properties / el_nino / description
```
Removed value: -"Of El Niño, %"
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoChances / properties / la_nina / description
```
Removed value: -"CPC's chance of La Niña in the season, %"
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoChances / properties / neutral / description
```
Removed value: -"Of neither, %"
```

changedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoSeasonAhead / properties / precipitation / anyOf

Previous value: -[
-  {
-    "additionalProperties": {
-      "anyOf": [
-        {
-          "additionalProperties": {
-            "anyOf": [
-              {
-                "type": "number"
-              },
-              {
-                "type": "integer"
-              },
-              {
-                "type": "boolean"
-              }
-            ]
-          },
-          "type": "object"
-        },
-        {
-          "type": "null"
-        }
-      ],
-      "description": "Of the phase's seasons since 1950, the share in which the country's season fell in its upper third (wetter or warmer) and its lower third (drier or colder), how many seasons, and whether the more frequent third is more frequent than chance alone would make it. By chance alone each third holds a third of the seasons, so 0.33 is no tendency. Null where the phase has no season on record"
-    },
-    "type": "object"
-  },
-  {
-    "type": "null"
-  }
-]New value: +[
+  {
+    "additionalProperties": {
+      "anyOf": [
+        {
+          "additionalProperties": {
+            "anyOf": [
+              {
+                "type": "number"
+              },
+              {
+                "type": "integer"
+              },
+              {
+                "type": "boolean"
+              }
+            ]
+          },
+          "type": "object"
+        },
+        {
+          "type": "null"
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    "type": "object"
+  },
+  {
+    "type": "null"
+  }
+]

removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoSeasonAhead / properties / precipitation / default
```
Removed value: -null
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoSeasonAhead / properties / precipitation / description
```
Removed value: -"By phase, el_nino and la_nina"
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoSeasonAhead / properties / season / description
```
Removed value: -"As 'NDJ 2026'"
```

changedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoSeasonAhead / properties / temperature / anyOf

Previous value: -[
-  {
-    "additionalProperties": {
-      "anyOf": [
-        {
-          "additionalProperties": {
-            "anyOf": [
-              {
-                "type": "number"
-              },
-              {
-                "type": "integer"
-              },
-              {
-                "type": "boolean"
-              }
-            ]
-          },
-          "type": "object"
-        },
-        {
-          "type": "null"
-        }
-      ],
-      "description": "Of the phase's seasons since 1950, the share in which the country's season fell in its upper third (wetter or warmer) and its lower third (drier or colder), how many seasons, and whether the more frequent third is more frequent than chance alone would make it. By chance alone each third holds a third of the seasons, so 0.33 is no tendency. Null where the phase has no season on record"
-    },
-    "type": "object"
-  },
-  {
-    "type": "null"
-  }
-]New value: +[
+  {
+    "additionalProperties": {
+      "anyOf": [
+        {
+          "additionalProperties": {
+            "anyOf": [
+              {
+                "type": "number"
+              },
+              {
+                "type": "integer"
+              },
+              {
+                "type": "boolean"
+              }
+            ]
+          },
+          "type": "object"
+        },
+        {
+          "type": "null"
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    "type": "object"
+  },
+  {
+    "type": "null"
+  }
+]

removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoSeasonAhead / properties / temperature / default
```
Removed value: -null
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoSeasonAhead / properties / temperature / description
```
Removed value: -"By phase; absent where no record holds enough of the country"
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoSeasonChances / properties / el_nino / description
```
Removed value: -"Of El Niño, %"
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoSeasonChances / properties / la_nina / description
```
Removed value: -"CPC's chance of La Niña in the season, %"
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoSeasonChances / properties / neutral / description
```
Removed value: -"Of neither, %"
```

removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoSeasonChances / properties / season / description

Removed value: -"CPC's three-month season and the year of its middle month, as 'NDJ 2026'"

removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoTold / properties / around / anyOf

Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "type": "string"
-  },
-  {
-    "type": "null"
-  }
-]

removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoTold / properties / around / default
```
Removed value: -null
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoTold / properties / around / description
```
Removed value: -"For a part of the country only: the city it is around"
```
addedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoTold / properties / around / type
```
Added value: +[
+  "string",
+  "null"
+]
```

removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoTold / properties / people_share / anyOf

Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "type": "number"
-  },
-  {
-    "type": "null"
-  }
-]

removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoTold / properties / people_share / default
```
Removed value: -null
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoTold / properties / people_share / description
```
Removed value: -"For a part: the share of the country's people there"
```
addedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoTold / properties / people_share / type
```
Added value: +[
+  "number",
+  "null"
+]
```
removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoTold / properties / season / description
```
Removed value: -"As 'DJF 2027'"
```

removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoTold / properties / strength / description

Removed value: -"clear: stands from chance among every country and season tested at once; leaning: on its own only, so it may be chance"

removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoTold / properties / tendency / description

Removed value: -"wetter, drier, warmer or colder than the country's usual third"

removedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoTold / properties / years / description

Removed value: -"In how many of the El Niño years on record, as '16 of 27 since 1950'; a third of them is what chance alone gives"

removedOutput schema / properties / ahead / default
```
Removed value: -null
```

removedOutput schema / properties / ahead / description

Removed value: -"With a country: each season CPC looks ahead to, its chances, and what each phase has brought the country in that season"

removedOutput schema / properties / chances / default
```
Removed value: -null
```

removedOutput schema / properties / chances / description

Removed value: -"Without a country, or for one with no record: the nine seasons ahead"

removedOutput schema / properties / country / default
```
Removed value: -null
```

removedOutput schema / properties / country / description

Removed value: -"With a country: its iso3, name and Criora page, where the Atlas has one"

removedOutput schema / properties / credit / description

Removed value: -"How a retelling credits the answer: Source: Criora with a link to the page the answer is about, then each originator whose data it quotes in the words its licence asks for. Concise, each credit once; detailed, by source with its name and licence, criora first"

removedOutput schema / properties / issued / description

Removed value: -"The day CPC's latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion was issued"

removedOutput schema / properties / next_discussion / description
```
Removed value: -"The day CPC has set for the next"
```

removedOutput schema / properties / note / anyOf

Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "type": "string"
-  },
-  {
-    "type": "null"
-  }
-]

removedOutput schema / properties / note / default
```
Removed value: -null
```

removedOutput schema / properties / note / description

Removed value: -"Why a country has CPC's chances alone, where it has"

addedOutput schema / properties / note / type
```
Added value: +[
+  "string",
+  "null"
+]
```
removedOutput schema / properties / past_el_ninos / default
```
Removed value: -null
```

removedOutput schema / properties / past_el_ninos / description

Removed value: -"With a country: what past El Niños brought it in each coming season El Niño is likely in, as its Criora page says it. Each tendency once, in the season it stands furthest from chance among overlapping ones; empty where none stands from chance. Tendencies of the past, not a forecast"

removedOutput schema / properties / records / default
```
Removed value: -null
```

removedOutput schema / properties / records / description

Removed value: -"With a country: the record and years each variable's tendencies are read from, as 'PREC/L, 1950-2025'; GPCP from 1980 stands in for PREC/L where it holds too little of a country. Null where none is read"

changedOutput schema / properties / seasons / anyOf

Previous value: -[
-  {
-    "additionalProperties": {
-      "additionalProperties": {
-        "additionalProperties": {
-          "anyOf": [
-            {
-              "additionalProperties": {
-                "anyOf": [
-                  {
-                    "type": "number"
-                  },
-                  {
-                    "type": "integer"
-                  },
-                  {
-                    "type": "boolean"
-                  }
-                ]
-              },
-              "type": "object"
-            },
-            {
-              "type": "null"
-            }
-          ],
-          "description": "Of the phase's seasons since 1950, the share in which the country's season fell in its upper third (wetter or warmer) and its lower third (drier or colder), how many seasons, and whether the more frequent third is more frequent than chance alone would make it. By chance alone each third holds a third of the seasons, so 0.33 is no tendency. Null where the phase has no season on record"
-        },
-        "type": "object"
-      },
-      "type": "object"
-    },
-    "type": "object"
-  },
-  {
-    "type": "null"
-  }
-]New value: +[
+  {
+    "additionalProperties": {
+      "additionalProperties": {
+        "additionalProperties": {
+          "anyOf": [
+            {
+              "additionalProperties": {
+                "anyOf": [
+                  {
+                    "type": "number"
+                  },
+                  {
+                    "type": "integer"
+                  },
+                  {
+                    "type": "boolean"
+                  }
+                ]
+              },
+              "type": "object"
+            },
+            {
+              "type": "null"
+            }
+          ]
+        },
+        "type": "object"
+      },
+      "type": "object"
+    },
+    "type": "object"
+  },
+  {
+    "type": "null"
+  }
+]

removedOutput schema / properties / seasons / default
```
Removed value: -null
```

removedOutput schema / properties / seasons / description

Removed value: -"Detailed, with a country: every season, by variable, phase and season"

removedOutput schema / properties / statuses / description

Removed value: -"CPC's ENSO Alert System status: not_active, el_nino_watch, el_nino_advisory, final_el_nino_advisory, la_nina_watch, la_nina_advisory or final_la_nina_advisory; two in a month of transition"

removedOutput schema / properties / synopsis / description
```
Removed value: -"CPC's synopsis, in its words"
```

Changed3 schema fields changedNov 3, 2026

addedOutput schema / $defs / EnsoTold

Added value: +{
+  "additionalProperties": false,
+  "properties": {
+    "around": {
+      "anyOf": [
+        {
+          "type": "string"
+        },
+        {
+          "type": "null"
+        }
+      ],
+      "default": null,
+      "description": "For a part of the country only: the city it is around"
+    },
+    "people_share": {
+      "anyOf": [
+        {
+          "type": "number"
+        },
+        {
+          "type": "null"
+        }
+      ],
+      "default": null,
+      "description": "For a part: the share of the country's people there"
+    },
+    "season": {
+      "description": "As 'DJF 2027'",
+      "type": "string"
+    },
+    "strength": {
+      "description": "clear: stands from chance among every country and season tested at once; leaning: on its own only, so it may be chance",
+      "type": "string"
+    },
+    "tendency": {
+      "description": "wetter, drier, warmer or colder than the country's usual third",
+      "type": "string"
+    },
+    "years": {
+      "description": "In how many of the El Niño years on record, as '16 of 27 since 1950'; a third of them is what chance alone gives",
+      "type": "string"
+    }
+  },
+  "required": [
+    "season",
+    "tendency",
+    "years",
+    "strength"
+  ],
+  "type": "object"
+}

changedOutput schema / properties / country / description

Previous value: -"With a country: its iso3, name and Criora page"New value: +"With a country: its iso3, name and Criora page, where the Atlas has one"

addedOutput schema / properties / past_el_ninos

Added value: +{
+  "anyOf": [
+    {
+      "items": {
+        "$ref": "#/$defs/EnsoTold"
+      },
+      "type": "array"
+    },
+    {
+      "type": "null"
+    }
+  ],
+  "default": null,
+  "description": "With a country: what past El Niños brought it in each coming season El Niño is likely in, as its Criora page says it. Each tendency once, in the season it stands furthest from chance among overlapping ones; empty where none stands from chance. Tendencies of the past, not a forecast"
+}

AddedNov 2, 2026

TDQS

A4.6/5.0

Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the read-only and idempotent annotations, the description discloses temporal scope (nine seasons ahead, per-season history since 1950), source (NOAA CPC), and the important caveat that country results are past tendencies, not forecasts. That is precisely the behavioral context needed to avoid misusing the output.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The definition is compact and front-loads the core resource before adding the country mode and usage examples. The first sentence is dense and the parenthetical tercile wording takes effort to parse, but there is little wasted text.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a two-optional-parameter, read-only tool with full schema descriptions and an output schema, the description supplies the needed scope, caveat, and country behavior. Nothing essential is missing for correct invocation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3, but the description adds useful meaning for the optional country parameter by explaining that including a country switches the result to per-season historical impacts (wetter/drier, warmer/colder thirds). It does not elaborate on response_format, which is already fully described in the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states a specific resource and scope: NOAA CPC El Niño/La Niña alert status, phase chances for nine seasons ahead, and country-specific historical tendencies since 1950. It also explicitly distinguishes the historical tendency output from a forecast, so the agent can tell this is not the same as forecast-oriented siblings.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It gives concrete 'Use for' examples such as 'is El Niño coming' and 'will El Niño make Indonesia dry this winter', which clearly frames when the tool applies. It does not explicitly name alternatives or when-not-to-use conditions beyond the 'not a forecast' caveat, so it stops short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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