UFC fight simulation and betting edges
invoke_mma_fight_simMonte Carlo simulation (4,000 runs) of every bout on the next UFC card: win probability, KO / submission / decision for each fighter, chance of each round ending the fight, chance it goes the distance, expected significant strikes, takedowns and control time, DK and FD projections with floor and ceiling, sportsbook prop lines next to the model, and the best price per market with model probability and expected value (edges). Projections start from the betting market (DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbook moneyline, method of victory and round odds, de-vigged), then add each fighter's strike, takedown and control rates against what the opponent allows. Backtest on 2,267 UFC fights 2021-2026: DraftKings mean miss 30.9 points vs 35.6 for a last-5 average.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| limit | No | Maximum rows to return. The plan limit applies on top. | |
| min_ev | No | Only return edges with expected value at or above this, for example 0.03 for +3 percent. Default all. | |
| fighter | No | Fighter name or part of it. |