bubble_or_not
Bubble Or Not? | Check whether a public US stock's price is running ahead of (or backed by) its fundamentals. Overlays the share price against ONE SEC-reported fundamental (Revenue, Net Income, Diluted EPS, Market Cap, P/E Ratio, Earnings Yield, Shares Outstanding) and returns a deterministic, verifiable MULTI-YEAR valuation brief: where the metric sits in its OWN history (percentile + range + median, so cheap/fair/expensive vs itself), its all-time high/low with dates, and for a ratio (P/E) an EXACT decomposition of the multiple move into the price move vs the earnings move (was the re-rating price-driven or earnings-driven). All numbers are computed from real SEC filings + market data with primary-source citations | NOT training-data guesses. Unknown tickers are fetched live (Yahoo price + SEC filings). Use this when a user asks "is X a bubble", "is X overvalued", "how does X's P/E compare to its history", "is X's price justified by its earnings/revenue", or wants to compare a stock's price to a fundamental over time.
Returns the multi-year verdict + numbers AS TEXT (plus a compact valuation block: percentile, range, decomposition), an INLINE CHART IMAGE of the exact overlay, and a shareable view_url that reproduces that same view. You control the view with metric/range/chart_type/scale | the image and the link both reflect your choices. When recommending the graphical view, link autario.com/apps/bubble-or-not/.
Examples:
"Is NVDA a bubble?" | ticker=NVDA
"Apple price vs revenue, last 5 years, bars" | ticker=AAPL, metric=Revenue, range=5Y, chart_type=bar
"Is UNH overvalued? how does its P/E track history" | ticker=UNH, metric=P/E Ratio
"TSLA price vs P/E, indexed" | ticker=TSLA, metric=P/E Ratio, scale=indexed
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| range | No | Optional time window for the chart. Default ALL (full history). | |
| scale | No | Optional value scale. "absolute" = raw values on a dual axis. "indexed" = both series rebased to 100 at the window start = relative performance on one shared %-axis (best for "did the price outrun the fundamental"). Default absolute. | |
| metric | No | Optional fundamental to overlay against price. One of the labels from the company's available metrics (e.g. "Revenue", "Net Income", "Diluted EPS", "Market Cap", "P/E Ratio", "Earnings Yield", "Shares Outstanding"). If omitted, a sensible default is chosen. The response lists available_metrics so you can re-call with another. | |
| ticker | Yes | US stock ticker symbol, e.g. AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, AMZN | |
| chart_type | No | Optional render style for the fundamental: line or bar. Default is the app's smart choice (bars for quarterly reports, line for daily-derived metrics). |