Tail Probability Shift (TPS)
adw.adw_102Returns a 0-100 fat-tail risk escalation score for US equities (shift in S&P 500/SPY's 20-day tail-exceedance rate beyond 1.5σ vs its 252-day baseline, sigmoid-scaled, refreshed daily) with score, trend, confidence, top_drivers, tail_prob_shift, tail_prob_recent, tail_prob_baseline. Call when the user asks about tail risk, fat tails, crash probability, extreme moves, volatility regime shifts, or drawdown risk, or when timing de-risking, hedging, or gross-exposure cuts ahead of market stress. Updates: daily.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| days | No | Optional: return a daily HISTORY series of the last N days (up to 5 years of real archived data) instead of the current snapshot. History requires Gold tier; without it, the current snapshot is returned. |