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AlpineDataWorks Intelligence Server

Tail Probability Shift (TPS)

adw.adw_102
Read-only

Returns a 0-100 fat-tail risk escalation score for US equities (shift in S&P 500/SPY's 20-day tail-exceedance rate beyond 1.5σ vs its 252-day baseline, sigmoid-scaled, refreshed daily) with score, trend, confidence, top_drivers, tail_prob_shift, tail_prob_recent, tail_prob_baseline. Call when the user asks about tail risk, fat tails, crash probability, extreme moves, volatility regime shifts, or drawdown risk, or when timing de-risking, hedging, or gross-exposure cuts ahead of market stress. Updates: daily.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
daysNoOptional: return a daily HISTORY series of the last N days (up to 5 years of real archived data) instead of the current snapshot. History requires Gold tier; without it, the current snapshot is returned.

TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description adds meaningful behavioral context beyond the readOnlyHint annotation by detailing the formula (20-day tail-exceedance rate vs 252-day baseline, sigmoid-scaled), the 0-100 score range, the output fields, and the daily refresh. It does not contradict annotations and provides a richer picture of what the tool returns and how it behaves.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with a dense, informative first sentence that explains exactly what the tool returns. However, 'Updates: daily.' at the end redundantly repeats 'refreshed daily' from the first sentence, so not every sentence earns its place, preventing a 5.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness3/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Without an output schema, the description is responsible for explaining return values. It lists the output fields (score, trend, confidence, top_drivers, tail_prob_shift, tail_prob_recent, tail_prob_baseline) but does not explain what 'trend', 'confidence', or 'top_drivers' represent. The optional history behavior is only in the schema, not in the description, leaving some gaps for a moderately complex tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The schema provides 100% coverage of the only parameter ('days'), including its optional nature, range, and Gold tier requirement. The main description does not add parameter semantics, so the baseline score of 3 is appropriate—the schema is doing the heavy lifting.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states a specific verb and resource: 'Returns a 0-100 fat-tail risk escalation score for US equities' with calculation details, making its purpose unambiguous. However, it does not explicitly distinguish itself from sibling tools by naming alternatives or contrasting with other risk metrics, so it falls short of a 5.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides an explicit 'call when' list covering tail risk, fat tails, crash probability, extreme moves, volatility regime shifts, drawdown risk, and timing de-risking/hedging. This gives clear context for use, but it lacks explicit when-not-to-use scenarios or alternative tool suggestions, so it earns a 4 rather than a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.3/5.0
Disambiguation1/5

With 318 tools named adw.adw_###, agents cannot tell them apart without reading full descriptions. Multiple tools cover the same domain (e.g., at least three USD strength scores: adw_055, adw_250, adw_580; four supply-chain stress scores: adw_009, adw_019, adw_020, adw_547), making misselection highly likely.

Naming Consistency3/5

The vast majority follow a consistent numeric ID pattern (adw.adw_###), but a small set breaks this with descriptive snake_case names (adw.catalog, adw.sample, adw.county_cancer, etc.). The numeric IDs are predictable but convey no semantic meaning, mixing with the few named tools and creating moderate inconsistency.

Tool Count1/5

318 tools is far beyond any reasonable scope for an intelligence server; even the largest sophisticated APIs rarely exceed 50. This extreme count suggests poor curation and will overwhelm agents with choice, making efficient tool selection impractical.

Completeness3/5

The server covers an extremely broad range of domains (crypto, macro, supply chain, healthcare, climate, county demographics), and includes discovery tools like adw.catalog and adw.sample. However, the surface is redundant and not systematically complete—many overlapping indices exist while other potentially valuable operations (e.g., raw data export, historical trend queries) are missing, leaving moderate gaps.

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