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Predict Market Trajectory

predict_market_trajectory
Read-onlyIdempotent

Forecast a DCPI market's near-term trajectory (next 1-8 quarters). Projects excess_power_score and constraint_score forward with confidence bands that WIDEN with horizon, from DC Hub's daily DCPI snapshot history — the only source that can, because it owns the time-series. Use to answer "is this market trending toward BUILD or AVOID?" or "will Dallas power stay tight over the next 6 months?". Params: market_slug (required, metro slug e.g. dallas, phoenix, northern-virginia — valid slugs come from rank_markets / get_market_dcpi_rank); horizon_quarters (optional 1-8, default 4; 2 = ~6 months out). Returns {market_slug, method, basis{history_points, history_span_days, slope_per_day, trend}, horizon_quarters, projection[{quarter_out, excess_power_score, excess_power_band, constraint_score, constraint_band}], caveat, snapshot_record}. HONEST: linear trend extrapolation, NOT a guarantee — bands widen with horizon and short history; needs >=3 daily snapshots or it declines. Do NOT use for a single point-in-time verdict (use get_market_dcpi_rank) or to rank many markets (use rank_markets).

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
market_slugYesMarket slug (metro), e.g. dallas, phoenix, northern-virginia — valid slugs come from rank_markets / get_market_dcpi_rank
horizon_quartersNoForecast horizon in quarters (1-8, default 4); 2 = ~6 months ahead

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
quotaNoCaller quota state (remaining calls, tier).
_entityNoPayload class (facility|market|iso_grid|queue_results|deal|report|response); branch on it.
citationNoHow to attribute DC Hub: {source, url, license, cite_as, retrieved_at}, or the attribution line as a string.
provenanceNoSource, method, as_of, verification_counts, license, cite_as; quote it when citing.
_front_doorNoFirst-tool hint: plan_query(intent) returns the ordered plan.
_return_loopNoNext-session delta call (get_changes).
site_evaluation_handoffNoFollow-up calls [{tool, parameters, why}] when the payload carries coordinates.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Added
  2. Removed
  3. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / required
      Added value: +[
      +  "market_slug"
      +]
  4. Changed2 schema fields changed
    • removedInput schema / $schema
      Removed value: -"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#"
    • removedOutput schema / $schema
      Removed value: -"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#"
  5. Changed5 schema fields changed
    • removedOutput schema / properties / citation / additionalProperties
      Removed value: -{}
    • addedOutput schema / properties / citation / anyOf
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "additionalProperties": {},
      +    "properties": {},
      +    "type": "object"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "type": "string"
      +  }
      +]
    • changedOutput schema / properties / citation / description
      Previous value: -"Machine-readable citation: how to attribute DC Hub (dchub.cloud) for this payload."New value: +"Machine-readable citation: how to attribute DC Hub (dchub.cloud) for this payload. Normally an OBJECT {source, url, license, cite_as, retrieved_at}; a bare string is accepted and carries the attribution line itself."
    • removedOutput schema / properties / citation / properties
      Removed value: -{}
    • removedOutput schema / properties / citation / type
      Removed value: -"object"
  6. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedOutput schema / properties / _front_door
      Added value: +{
      +  "additionalProperties": {},
      +  "description": "In-band front-door hint (first workflow-entry tool of a session): call plan_query(intent) first for the ordered multi-step plan.",
      +  "properties": {},
      +  "type": "object"
      +}
  7. Changed5 schema fields changed
    • removedOutput schema / properties / site_evaluation_handoff / additionalProperties
      Removed value: -{}
    • addedOutput schema / properties / site_evaluation_handoff / anyOf
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "items": {
      +      "additionalProperties": {},
      +      "properties": {},
      +      "type": "object"
      +    },
      +    "type": "array"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "additionalProperties": {},
      +    "properties": {},
      +    "type": "object"
      +  }
      +]
    • changedOutput schema / properties / site_evaluation_handoff / description
      Previous value: -"Pre-built follow-up call (analyze_site / get_water_risk args) when the payload carries coordinates."New value: +"Pre-built follow-up calls (analyze_site / get_water_risk args) when the payload carries coordinates — an array of {tool, parameters, why} entries."
    • removedOutput schema / properties / site_evaluation_handoff / properties
      Removed value: -{}
    • removedOutput schema / properties / site_evaluation_handoff / type
      Removed value: -"object"
  8. Changed1 schema field changed
    • changedOutput schema / (root)
      Previous value: -nullNew value: +{
      +  "$schema": "http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#",
      +  "additionalProperties": {},
      +  "description": "DC Hub envelope: structuredContent mirrors the JSON payload in content[0].text — tool-specific data fields ride at the top level alongside these envelope keys.",
      +  "properties": {
      +    "_entity": {
      +      "description": "Payload class discriminator (e.g. facility|market|iso_grid|queue_results|deal|report|response) — branch on this before parsing the rest.",
      +      "type": "string"
      +    },
      +    "_return_loop": {
      +      "additionalProperties": {},
      +      "description": "Suggested next-session delta call (get_changes since=24h) so you pull only what changed.",
      +      "properties": {},
      +      "type": "object"
      +    },
      +    "citation": {
      +      "additionalProperties": {},
      +      "description": "Machine-readable citation: how to attribute DC Hub (dchub.cloud) for this payload.",
      +      "properties": {},
      +      "type": "object"
      +    },
      +    "provenance": {
      +      "additionalProperties": {},
      +      "description": "Collection-level provenance block: {source, method, as_of, verification_counts, cite_url_template, license, cite_as}. Quote the verification level when citing.",
      +      "properties": {},
      +      "type": "object"
      +    },
      +    "quota": {
      +      "additionalProperties": {},
      +      "description": "Caller quota state (remaining calls, tier) when available.",
      +      "properties": {},
      +      "type": "object"
      +    },
      +    "site_evaluation_handoff": {
      +      "additionalProperties": {},
      +      "description": "Pre-built follow-up call (analyze_site / get_water_risk args) when the payload carries coordinates.",
      +      "properties": {},
      +      "type": "object"
      +    }
      +  },
      +  "type": "object"
      +}
  9. Added

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already cover read-only/idempotent/no-destroy safety, and the description goes well beyond them: it discloses the method (linear trend extrapolation), that confidence bands widen with horizon and short history, and the >=3 snapshot minimum that causes refusal. The 'HONEST' caveat is exactly the behavioral context an agent needs for a forecast tool.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Purpose is front-loaded and most sentences earn their place (routing, caveat, requirement). The param and return-shape blocks are dense lists that partly duplicate structured fields, which is slightly verbose but still useful for scanning.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Even though an output schema exists, the description clarifies the forecast method, caveat, horizon behavior, and prerequisites, so nothing an agent needs is missing. It is complete for a forecasting tool with moderate complexity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so both parameters are already fully documented in the schema. The description restates market_slug and horizon_quarters with the same example slugs and '2 = ~6 months' note the schema already carries, adding little new meaning. Baseline 3 is appropriate when the schema does the heavy lifting.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific verb+resource+scope ('Forecast a DCPI market's near-term trajectory (next 1-8 quarters)') and names exactly what is projected. It distinguishes itself from sibling tools like get_market_dcpi_rank and rank_markets by defining its forecasting role. An agent can tell it apart from its siblings without opening any schema.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit when-to-use with concrete example questions ('is this market trending toward BUILD or AVOID?') and explicit when-not-to-use routing ('Do NOT use for a single point-in-time verdict (use get_market_dcpi_rank) or to rank many markets (use rank_markets)'). It also states a prerequisite (needs >=3 daily snapshots or it declines), leaving nothing to inference.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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