Compare published return assumptions
compare_return_assumptionsRuns the same plan against several published capital market assumption sets and returns the success rate and median outcome under each, showing how far the answer moves with the return forecast used. Every input is optional: omitted plan inputs use an illustrative plan (age 65, $1,000,000 saved, $40,000 a year spending) which the reply states in its first line.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| pension | No | Yearly pension income. Default 0. | |
| sources | No | Source ids to compare. Defaults to all. | |
| allocations | No | Percentages summing to 100: [US stocks, international stocks, bonds, real estate, cash]. Default [60,10,25,5,0]. | |
| current_age | No | Current age of the primary person. | |
| bucket_years | No | Only with withdrawal_strategy bucket: years of spending held in the cash bucket, 1-10. | |
| return_model | No | How returns are generated. parametric (default): the forward-looking published assumptions. bootstrap: stationary block bootstrap of historical months. historical: replays real months from 1926 in order. The last two need a PRO licence; without one the engine runs parametric and the result says so. | |
| ss_start_age | No | Age Social Security starts. Default 67. | |
| inflation_rate | No | Annual inflation as a percent, e.g. 2.5. Default 2.5. | |
| retirement_age | No | Age work income stops. Defaults to current age. | |
| returns_source | No | Which published return set to use (see list_return_assumption_sources). Default jpmorgan. | |
| annual_spending | No | Planned yearly spending in today's dollars, before income tax (this tool runs the standard engine, which does not model tax). | |
| current_savings | No | Total invested portfolio today, in dollars. | |
| life_expectancy | No | Age the plan must last until. Default 92. | |
| social_security | No | Yearly Social Security in today's dollars. Default 0 — and 0 is reported as an explicit assumption, not hidden. | |
| pension_start_age | No | Age the pension starts. Default 65. | |
| withdrawal_strategy | No | Spending rule. fixed (default): the planned amount, inflation-adjusted, every year. guyton-klinger: guardrails that cut or raise spending as the portfolio moves. vpw: variable percentage withdrawal. bucket: a cash reserve of bucket_years of spending. | |
| monthly_contribution | No | Monthly savings until retirement. Default 0. |